Farmers would rack up tabs with various counterparties throughout the year and pay them off at harvest season, but if the harvest failed for one reason or another, the farmers would be financially destroyed. In ancient times, debts were often about crop harvest outcomes. This follow-up article explores the concept of debt forgiveness including some of the nuts and bolts for how it can happen in certain ways, and how it can’t realistically happen in other ways. My prior article discussed the national debt and at what levels it becomes a problem. Most of them don’t have fiscal deficits as a percentage of GDP quite as large as the United States, but some of them have even higher debt-to-GDP levels due to sluggish GDP growth. Other developed countries are in similar shape. Since recessions do inevitably happen and result in less tax revenue and increased expenditures when they do, the CBO has had a historical tendency to understate deficit and debt growth. Importantly, the CBO always assumes there will be no recessions within their multi-decade forward forecasts. So, again, please join me in extending a warm welcome to the latest addition to our EWT family – Lyn Alden Schwartzer.With debts at record levels around the world, there are folks calling for debt jubilees- the cancellations of certain types of debt.Īfter a period of stabilization, the Congressional Budget Office expects federal debt-to-GDP to eventually reach 200% while deficits structurally continue to grow as a share of GDP: Adding Lyn to our StockWaves team truly rounds out our StockWaves service in way that can best identify major opportunities in individual stocks for our members through a strong combination of Elliott Wave analysis coupled with a strong underlying valuation perspective. Lyn will be focusing her analysis on select large, mid and small-cap stocks within our StockWaves service in order to identify opportunities based upon her valuation analysis. Lyn's work has been featured or cited on Forbes, Business Insider, CNBC, MarketWatch, Time's Money Magazine, Kiplinger, The Street, US News and World Report, the Telegraph, Fidelity Investments, Morningstar, and other financial media. She focuses strongly on valuation, and regularly employs the use of cash-secured puts, covered calls, and normal buy-and-hold positions, depending on market conditions and available opportunities. Her specialties include monitoring developments in the business cycle, analyzing various approaches to asset allocation, and covering stocks and international ETFs. ![]() She has worked for over a decade in the aviation industry in a range of roles, starting as an electronics engineer and moving into project and facility management, and engineering finance.įounder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and a popular contributor on Seeking Alpha, Lyn provides market research to tens of thousands of individual investors and financial professionals per month. ![]() Lyn has a Bachelor's degree in electrical & electronics engineering and a Master's degree in engineering management with a focus on financial modeling and engineering economics. ![]() With a background blending engineering and finance, Lyn uses a dispassionate long-term quantitative and qualitative approach to filter through the noise and find value in stocks and markets around the world. So, please join me in welcoming Lyn Alden Schwartzer as the latest analyst addition to our Elliottwavetrader family. And, I am quite certain you will feel the same way, which is why we reached out to her. To this end, I have come across a fundamental analyst that has blown me away with her work, especially on the mid-cap stocks. ![]() Ultimately, this means that the fundamentals of those stocks do matter more and more. However, that also means that the less mass sentiment is being displayed within a financial product, such as with smaller capitalized stocks, then the less it is driven by mass sentiment. To me, that has become quite obvious throughout my career, which is why we have been so successful in using Elliott Wave analysis to track larger market moves and mega-cap stocks. As most of you know, my perspective of larger markets is based upon the fact that mass sentiment drives the market, as well as the mega-cap stocks.
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